Population Ageing: A Larger and Older Population
The world's population is not only growing larger, it is also becoming older. Population ageing is an inevitable consequence of fertility decline, especially if it is combined with increases in life expectancy. The proportion of older persons is increasing at a faster rate than any other age segment. In developed countries, the proportion of older people already exceeds that of children. In developing countries, proportion of older people is increasing rapidly due to the faster pace of fertility decline that has resulted from the success of reproductive health and family planning programmes.
According to the UN Population Division, during the next 45 years, the number of persons in the world aged 60 years or older is expected to almost triple, increasing from 668million people in 2005 to nearly 2.03 billion of older persons live in developing countries; by 2050, that proportion will increase to almost 80 per cent.
In developed countries, one fifth of the population is 60 years or older; by 2050, that proportion is expected to rise to almost a third, and there will be two elderly persons for every child. In developing countries, the proportion of the older population is expected to rise from about 9 per cent in 2005 to close to about 20 per by 2050.
There will be an even more notable increase in the number of 'oldest-old' people, those who are 80 years old or over, from 86 million in 2005 to 402million in 2050. By 2050, most oldest-old people will live in the developing world. In almost all societies, women represent the largest number and proportion of older people.
A key indicator of population ageing is the median age (the age at which 50 per cent of the population is older and 50 per cent younger). Today, just 11 developed countries have a median age of over 40. But by 2050, 99 countries will fall into that group.
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